The Auxin solar trade case, which is only investigated by the Ministry of Commerce, already reduces the forecast for solar installations for 2022 and 2023 by 46%, according to new analysis by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).
Updated forecast, taking into account the halt in shipments of solar PV modules and cells from Southeast Asia and delayed and canceled project pipelines, projects a 24 GW drop in planned solar capacity over the next two years, which is more solar than the industry installed in all of 2021.
In addition to the new analysis, SEIA collected more than 700 survey responses to capture project-level data and the impact felt by businesses.
- 83% of 730 respondents said their supply of modules was delayed or canceled
- A total of 318 projects representing 51 GW of solar capacity and 6 GWh of attached battery storage are canceled or delayed.
- A total of $52 billion in private investment is at risk.
- 70% of survey respondents indicate that at least half of their solar and storage workforce is at risk and
- More than 200 companies report that their entire workforce is at risk.
“If tariffs are imposed, in the blink of an eye, we’re going to lose 100,000 American solar workers and any hope of meeting the president’s clean energy goals,” said SEIA President and CEO Abigail Ross. Hopper. “It would be a monumental loss for our nation, which has the potential to lead our clean energy future, with the right policies.”
By 2025, the imposition of tariffs will drive solar capacity down by 75 GW from the pace needed to reach the nation’s target, equal to the size of the entire U.S. solar market before 2020. In terms carbon, lost solar deployment will cause the United States to emit an additional 364 million metric tons of CO2 by 2035.
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